Eight years after moving a $108K pension into a self-managed portfolio, Mike presents a quarterly analysis with nearly ~200% growth despite obstacles. He reviews three underperforming stocks (Apple, Alimentation Couche-Tard, Starbucks), explains his approach to decide between maintaining and reducing positions, and shares his technique for separating stock price fluctuations from business developments. Find out which stocks subtly enhanced returns this quarter and Mike’s upcoming strategies.
You Will Discover
The origin of this portfolio
– In 2017, $108K from Mike’s previous employer’s pension was deposited into a locked account; no further contributions are allowed—only reinvestments.
– The target allocation was approximately 50% Canada / 50% U.S.; currently, it’s about 44% CA / 56% U.S. due to U.S. market advantages.
– Investment strategy: 100% equities, concentrating on companies that grow dividends; the portfolio undergoes quarterly assessments based on earnings reports.
The process > the price
– Each asset is assessed on two main criteria:
1) Investment thesis (reasons for acquisition)
2) Dividend Triangle (trends in revenue, EPS, dividends)
– Policies include a 2–3 year window for turnarounds; individual positions capped at 10% (trim near 8%); typical target weight is 3–3.5%.
– Short-term price swings do not equal a change in thesis. Management has priority over media impact.
Scrutinizing losers (and Mike’s responses)
– Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD.TO): Diminishing traffic/margins; 7-Eleven agreement fell through; analysts remain cautious. Growth focus: approximately 60% organic, ~40% M&A. Holding at ~6% portfolio weight; decision: Maintain for one year without changes.
– Starbucks (SBUX): EPS decline; difficulties in the U.S./China; union movements complicate matters; new CEO and strategies need time. Decision: Hold with careful monitoring; review in about 12 months due to current misalignment with targets.
– Apple (AAPL): Recent disappointing annual performance following sustained growth; facing a lull in innovation while addressing AI; encountering geopolitical/tariff issues. Though financially robust, the dividend triangle remains only adequate. Portfolio weight ~8.6% (largest). Decision: Hold; trimming only if the triangle weakens and weight remains elevated.
Unexpected success: Granite REIT (GRT.UN/MGU.UN)
– Steady FFO, high occupancy, sensible payout ratios finally acknowledged; shares rose >20% YTD. Takeaway: Enduring fundamentals frequently lead to eventual price alignment.
Other quiet contributors
– Stantec (STN): Reliable double-digit growth, exceptional execution.
– Toromont (TIH): Gains from infrastructure development expectations.
– CCL Industries (CCL.B): Revenue & EPS increased ~9% with stable margins.
– Brookfield Renewable (BEPC/BEP): Sentiment improved alongside stable metrics.
– National Bank (NA): Continues to show that even “expensive” valuations can appreciate.
What’s forthcoming (and what’s off the table)
– Portfolio reaches a record high (~$315–318K); fully allocated.
– Aim: Augment Dollarama (DOL) to a complete ~3% stake through dividends.
– Otherwise, no rush to trade—“the more you manage your portfolio, the less you possess.”
Free Webinar: Navigate Price Confusion and Act with Determination
When a stock experiences significant volatility, many react to the price changes first. This session will instruct you to disregard the noise and focus on business evaluations—to confidently determine if you should sell, retain, or acquire more.
New Webinar Invitation
You will learn:
– A fundamental framework for recognizing when to ignore headlines and when to pay heed
– A quick business-model assessment to swiftly uncover major risks
– Leveraging the Dividend Triangle to distinguish bargains from traps
Details:
– Thursday, September 18th at 1:00 p.m. ET
– 100% complimentary (no strings attached); replay available to all enrollees
– ~50-minute presentation + 1-hour live Q&A
– Handouts/resources for live participants
– Live seats limited to the first 500
If you’re frustrated by not grasping the reasons behind a stock’s ±10% movement during earnings reports, this is for you.