Unsure About Stock Price Variations? Check Out This [Podcast]

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Perplexed by erratic price fluctuations? Here’s a repeatable, 3-step guide to make quicker, more composed buy, hold, and sell choices—without relying on guesswork.

By the conclusion, you’ll be equipped to distinguish between noise and news, evaluate a precarious position, acknowledge when a “bad” quarter is unexpectedly better than anticipated, and act decisively—whether that entails cutting back, increasing your stake, or maintaining your position. We demonstrate the method using real companies (Nike, Couche-Tard, Granite REIT), and lead you to a complimentary replay with slides and cheat sheets so you can implement it into your portfolio immediately.

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You’ll Discover

Why does price seem so puzzling?

• After numerous webinar Q&As, the recurring question remains: “Stock ABC just surged/dropped—should I buy, sell, or hold?”

• Short-term prices are influenced by a combination of results and expectations. Positive quarters can still “disappoint” and decline; weak quarters can rebound if expectations were lower.

Step 1 — Understand what you own (and the reason behind it)

• Compose a concise, one-page thesis for each holding:

  • Playbook: How the company generates profits.

  • Growth drivers: Why revenues and earnings can continue to increase.

  • Economic moat: What safeguards it from competitors.

• Additionally, create the risk map: internal vulnerabilities, external/industry challenges (e.g., tariffs), and competitive landscape.

• Mike demonstrates the exercise in real time using Nike (NKE)—brand power vs. retailer connections, DTC transition, cyclical demand, tariff threats, and global competition.

Step 2 — Analyze quarterly earnings intelligently (20% of effort = 80% of insights)

• Begin with the press release (highlights, revenue/EPS, dividend actions).

• Review the investor presentation for segment graphics and future guidance.

• If necessary, explore financial statements (margins, cash flow, debt, maturities).

• Skim through the earnings call (or transcript) for tone, guidance adjustments, and analyst feedback.

• Pro tip: If you’re uncertain, insert the call transcript into an AI summarizer with a particular question.

What to observe within the results

• Revenue quality: Organic growth vs. acquisitions; same-store sales for retailers; FX effects.

• EPS quality: Adjusted vs. GAAP; what is genuinely recurring; reasons for margin shifts.

• Margins: Are they stable, expanding, or contracting—and is it temporary or a structural issue?

• Guidance: Reaffirmed, elevated, or reduced (and the reasons why).

• Capital allocation: Dividend adjustments, share buybacks, debt movements, asset divestitures.

Expectations vs. figures (why “bad news” can lead to rallies)

• Example: Alimentation Couche-Tard reported a decline in revenue/EPS, yet saw a rise that day due to better than feared same-store trends and outlook.

• Interpret: Price reacts to the delta versus consensus, not merely to headlines.

Step