Prior to disclosing my forecasts for 2026, keep this essential factor in mind:
“… the prevailing trends might not necessarily produce the results you expect.”
— Mackenzie Market Outlook
Here’s an important reminder: adjusting your portfolio is advantageous. A complete transformation is often unwise. In simpler terms, make changes—don’t rebuild from the ground up.
The core principle remains: remain invested. Now, let’s examine the central theme for 2026—the one subtly shaping the whole economy.
The key themes influencing 2026
Warning regarding trends
Considering AI, nuclear, copper, and grids might encourage you to invest significantly in the “clear victors.” The problem is that “need” doesn’t always equal “profit.”
We’ve encountered this situation in the past. A theme emerges, investments flood in, valuations skyrocket, and suddenly losses surpass gains—especially for those who join late and are willing to pay any price.
Embrace this straightforward approach for 2026:
- Steer clear of the superficial glow
- Concentrate on companies that enable the trend
- Select businesses that were robust before the trend gained traction
This is how you benefit from the theme without becoming its exit liquidity.
AI has transcended technology — it’s now macro
While 2024–2025 signified the market discovering AI, 2026 marks a broader acknowledgment:
AI is now macro.
It affects capital spending, energy needs, grid pressures, industrial obstructions, market concentration, and valuations. BlackRock’s 2026 outlook views AI capex as a catalyst for growth rather than merely a focus on the sector.
AI expansion necessitates:
- new data facilities
- transmission lines and grid enhancements
- copper, aluminum, steel
- electricity (more than expected)
- considerable funding
Thus, the opportunity extends beyond merely “purchasing a tech giant and wishing for the best.” It involves channeling funds into industrials, utilities, materials, energy, and finance—the foundational infrastructure of this vision.
Here’s what many miss: this resembles a capex bull market. BlackRock mentions multi-trillion-dollar AI capex plans for the second half of this decade.
“Is it a bubble?”
This situation is unique in that valuation is significant. Two entities fueled the dot-com boom:
- Web companies like Pets.com, illustrating clicks and views without substantial backing.
- Established tech giants sinking billions into internet infrastructure.
Today